Keeping the light on and the transports running, thoughts after FORTE 2026

The conference organized by NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence was held in Vilnius Lithuania on the 27^th-29^th of October 2026. Discussions covered maritime security, cyber threats, alternative fuels, and lessons from Ukraine. For the center, these topics raised questions about how business models within our existing energy system and how resilience could be valued, funded, and governed in a future model.

Energy is the battlefield

A clear take home message from both our allies within NATO as well as the Ukrainian representatives is that energy production and infrastructure is part of the battlefield and acts as prioritized targets when a conflict breaks out. Lessons from Ukraine therefore makes it clear that we need to protect the system as well as begin to redesign the system to provide alternative ways of both producing and distributing energy.

Preparing todays system to keep essential services running

For the end user the light must switch on when the button is flipped, the car must start when the button is pushed and the furnace must provide heat when heat is needed. This holds true in peace and war and is the final test of how our energy system works.

On a systemic level electricity and fuel supports healthcare, food supplies, transport, and communications. They also underpin military operations and the ability to support allies. Disruption in one part of the energy system therefore affect many other parts of society. This makes us ask the question of how we can adjust and develop today’s system and the actors within it to better withstand long periods of stress and uncertainty? Protective measures, backup supplies, and the ability to repair damage quickly are all essential. Equipment must be supported by trained personnel, available spare parts, and reliable supply chains.

Protecting infrastructure and strengthening the resilience of an entire society involve different responsibilities and incentives. Cybersecurity and physical protection help safeguard operations. Alternative supply routes, local production, and compatible fuels also support customers and essential public services. Within the logic of just in time and global supply chains that operate according to plan these resources can appear costly, however a clear message at the conference is that it’s time to change our world view. 

Risk sharing for long term societal benefits

An investment in reliable supply within today’s system benefit whole of society, the cost however is taken by the investors who might in a later phase try to make the end user pay for the investments. At a time when Europe is in dire needs of low priced and highly reliable energy it can be understandable that this does not seem like an attractive business models for any of the actors within the system. This challenge creates a financing challenge when the organization bearing the cost cannot capture the full value of its investment. Making it clear that there is a need for new business models for existing energy companies as well as new ways of both producing and distributing energy on a systemic level.

Alternative models of production, distribution and consumption

Creating the system that we need will demand that we are able to create new models of production, distribution and consumption of energy. Domestic production of alternative fuels can be part of the solution, however put up against the lean and just in time global system of fossil fuels that will be difficult. Here we need to considerate many factors, both regarding price and stability of delivery for the end consumer, reducing emissions, reliance on vulnerable sources of supply, compatibility with existing engines etc. This is not an easy task, and it became clear during both the presentations and the general discussions that there is a need for both new ways of calculating investments, sharing risks and pricing the product for the consumer. Assessing resilience within our energy system do not end with security of supply as in stock piling rather it is a key take away from the conference that there is a strong need for the whole system to change.

Investors need customers and credible commitments over time. Public purchasing commitments, payments for maintaining preparedness capacity, and arrangements to share investment. Payment would need to be linked to a capability that can be demonstrated and assessed.

Connecting energy security with research on governance

These questions relate directly to the center’s research on management, supply chains, innovation, and business models. Preparedness depends on decisions made by owners, boards, and management teams. Their priorities determine which capabilities that are developed and how these capabilities are viewed by their own organizations and the market. Building resilience into infrastructure, organizations, and investment decisions from the outset and the need for business models that uses these new market dynamics to create competitive advantages off and on the battlefield for the entire NATO alliance was a recurring theme at the FORTE conference and we are looking forward to continuing the conversations.