How flower farms became engines of rural development in Kenya

A new study examining Kenya's rapidly expanding cut-flower industry suggests that rural areas have enormous potential for driving economic transformation when stable wage jobs become available locally. In Kenya's flower industry, many of these jobs were filled by women, for whom stable wage employment had previously been scarce.

Authored by Menna Bishop, University of Warwick, Niclas Moneke, University of Oxford, and Céline Zipfel, Stockholm School of Economics and House of Sustainable Society affiliate, the research shows how the expansion of flower farming led to substantial changes for communities, attracting new residents, increasing household wealth, and contributing to the growth of small towns.

“We often think about development as something that happens in cities or factories,” says Céline Zipfel. “Our findings show that stable wage jobs in rural areas can also transform local economies.” 

From self-employment to stable wages

The study follows 238 flower farms established across Kenya between the late 1990s and 2019. By combining satellite imagery with three rounds of national census data, the researchers compare communities that received a flower farm with similar locations that did not.

One of the clearest differences is in women's employment. Kenya's export-oriented cut-flower industry has historically employed a predominantly female workforce, particularly in greenhouse production and harvesting.

After a flower farm opened, women became substantially more likely to hold paid jobs and less likely to rely on small family businesses or self-employment. For many rural women, these were among the first stable, year-round wage jobs available locally.

Employment among men also increased, although more gradually.

New jobs, new towns

The effects extend well beyond the farms themselves.

Satellite images show a steady increase in nighttime luminosity – a widely used proxy for local economic activity – in areas surrounding flower farms after they were established, while census data reveal growing populations, rising migration into these areas, improving housing conditions, and increasing household wealth. Together, these changes suggest that many locations that began as dispersed rural communities gradually took on the characteristics of small towns.

"The most striking finding is how far the effects spread,” says Zipfel. “What began as a new employer became a catalyst for broader economic and social change across the entire local community."

Changes in family life

Another key finding from the study is that fertility declined in communities where flower farms were established. Women were less likely to have given birth during the previous one to three years than women living in comparable locations. The decline appears to be concentrated among younger women, which is consistent with delays in family formation.

Although the study cannot determine why this happened, better employment opportunities, changing economic incentives, and new expectations about the future may all have contributed.

The findings suggest that employment can influence many aspects of people's lives, far beyond income alone.

Lessons for development policy

Across much of sub-Saharan Africa, people continue to migrate to large cities in search of economic opportunities, even though urban job creation often struggles to keep pace. These findings from Kenya suggest that creating stable wage jobs in rural areas can stimulate local economic growth where people already live, fostering the growth of smaller towns and spreading economic opportunities more broadly across the country.

While cities will remain central to economic growth, the study suggests that rural industrialization can also play an important role in structural transformation by creating new economic hubs outside major urban centers.

The research also points to the importance of planning ahead. As rural employment expands, growing communities will require housing, infrastructure, schools, healthcare, and other public services to ensure that economic growth translates into sustainable development.

Research details

The study builds on the project “Female Wage Labour and Fertility: Evidence from the Cut-Flower Industry in Kenya”, supported by STEG, G²LM|LIC, and the Handelsbanken Foundation.

Authors:

• Menna Bishop, PhD Student at the University of Warwick
• Niclas Moneke, Associate Professor at the University of Oxford
• Céline Zipfel, Assistant Professor at the Stockholm School of Economics and House of Sustainable Society affiliated researcher