How trust, not values, shaped Ukraine’s East - West divide before the war
Just weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the European Social Survey completed the 10th round of data collection on public attitudes and beliefs in Ukraine. This policy brief examines regional variation in liberal values such as attitudes toward democracy and the EU, based on that data. While respondents in Eastern Ukraine were more skeptical of democracy and EU integration, they did not consistently reject liberal social values to a greater extent than respondents in other parts of the country. The most striking divide however lies in institutional trust, which was significantly lower in Eastern Ukraine. This suggests that trust in institutions, which may have been further negatively impacted by prolonged exposure to violence since 2014, underlie the observed regional differences in attitudes towards democracy and the EU. Understanding these differences is vital for policymakers navigating Ukraine’s reform and EU accession process.
Key points from the policy brief
- Institutional trust, not liberal values, was the main divide: While Eastern Ukrainians were more skeptical of democracy and the EU, they often expressed more liberal views on issues like LGBT rights, child obedience, and authority than people in other regions.
- Support for the EU varied sharply by region: In a hypothetical EU referendum, 73% of Eastern respondents said they would vote against joining the EU, compared to just 11% in the West. This gap highlights how feelings toward Europe were not evenly spread across the country.
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More speculatively, conflict exposure may have eroded trust: Years of violence in Eastern Ukraine, especially in the Donbass region, likely damaged people’s trust in government and international institutions. This could explain why Easterners reported lower trust levels, even if their values were not fundamentally different.
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Meet the authors
- Cecilia Smitt Meyer, Research Assistant, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE)
- Anders Olofsgård, Deputy Director at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE); Associate Professor at the Stockholm School of Economics (SSE)
Email: Anders.Olofsgård@hhs.se
Phone: +46 (0) 70 385 90 97
