Higher Seminar in Statecraft and Strategic Communication | Tony Ingesson
Bio
Tony Ingesson is Assistant Professor of Intelligence Analysis at Lund University. His research interests include counterintelligence (in particular responses to Soviet espionage in the 1960s-1980s), clandestine communications, tactical/operational deception and manipulation, industrial espionage and methods for intelligence analysis. His current work includes studies of photographic miniaturization techniques for concealment of information, tactical/operational deception and manipulation in law enforcement and intelligence, as well as a historical analysis of the practice of counterintelligence in a high-trust society (Sweden in the 1980s).
Abstract
Professionalization is a growing trend in intelligence organizations. However, unlike the traditional professions, intelligence practitioners frequently find themselves locked in a struggle with an intelligent antagonist. One key aspect of professionalization, the teaching of structured, scientifically based knowledge and best practices, can lead to predictability. This creates a vulnerability that can be exploited by an antagonist. Using a theoretical framework built on contributions from Clausewitz and Reflexive Control theory, together with examples from Napoleon’s campaign in Northern Italy and a 1980s KGB deception operation to conceal a mole in the CIA, it is shown how personal qualities, creativity and unpredictability rather than conformity are required to prevail against an intelligent, well-informed and capable antagonist. In this sense, intelligence analysis in relation to an antagonist is like a chess game: structured approaches and best practices serve the same purpose as standardized game openings, mid-game strategies and checkmate patterns. But, just as in chess, a game cannot be won without the addition of individual talent and unique responses to the moves of the adversary.