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STOCKHOLM SCHOOL
OF ECONOMICS

SITE Seminar | Pricing the green transition: An investment appraisal of Romanian low-carbon steel

Join us for the next SITE Seminar! On June 17, 2025, Mara Balasa (Stockholm School of Economics & Energy Policy Group) will present her research “Pricing the Green Transition: An Investment Appraisal of Romanian Low-Carbon Steel.” Using unique industry data and scenario analysis, the study evaluates Romania’s plans to decarbonize its most polluting steel plant, revealing the economic viability of green steel hinges on hydrogen sourcing and a 15% price premium to remain competitive.
Starttid: 2025-06-17 at 12:00
Sluttid: 2025-06-17 at 13:00
Tidszon: CEST
Plats: Bertil Ohlins gata 4, 113 50 Stockholm

Working paper title: Pricing the Green Transition: An Investment Appraisal of Romanian Low-Carbon Steel

By: Mara Balasa

Abstract

Steel is a hard to abate energy-intensive industry that is not on track to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, as its decarbonization is costly and faces significant challenges. Despite limited fiscal capacity, there is a plan in Romania to produce low-carbon steel. We draw on a unique dataset collected by the Energy Policy Group and analyze the decarbonization of Romania’s sole primary steel producer - one of the top 10 most polluting steel plants in the European Union - using a marginal shift analysis and an investment appraisal. The emissions of this steelmaker currently stand at 1.87 tons of carbon dioxide per ton of steel, and its ambition is to become carbon neutral by 2030. Our scenario analysis examines the outcomes of decarbonization under different hydrogen sourcing strategies and reveals that a 15% price premium is needed for green steel to be competitive when hydrogen is purchased externally as opposed to being produced on site through electrolysis. Without this premium, the net present value analysis from 2030 to 2050 estimates a cumulative loss between €3.3 and €8.7 billion. These results are highly sensitive to hydrogen sourcing and electricity prices, underscoring the importance of infrastructure, price certainty and policy support in achieving decarbonization.

About the speaker

Mara Balasa, PhD Fellow, Center for Statecraft and Strategic Communication, Stockholm School of Economics Associate, Clean Economy Programme, Energy Policy Group.

With a background in economics and political science (BSc University of Warwick), economics and data analysis (MSc Stockholm School of Economics), she is currently researching the green transition with a focus on industrial policy and steel decarbonisation. During her PhD, Mara received the Hedelius scholarship for a research visit abroad and, during her master’s degree, she was the recipient of the UniCredit Foundation Masterscholarship for top students.

Previously, Mara worked as a short-term consultant for the World Bank, was a market operations analyst at the European Central Bank and a research executive in public affairs in Brussels, focusing on energy and transport. She has also briefly worked in public administration at the Ministry of Economy in Romania and at the Permanent Representation of Romania to the European Union.

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SITE Seminar Brown bag