Seminar in Economics | Oskar Norddström
Welcome to this Seminar in Economics organised by the Department of Economics, SSE. The seminar speaker is Oskar Nordström, Uppsala University, presenting “Worker Attributes, Aggregate Conditions and the Heterogeneous Impact of Adverse Labor Market Shocks”.
The paper estimates generalized random forests using extremely rich Swedish register data to predict individual earnings losses due to establishment closures. The most affected decile lose 45 percent of annual earnings one year after job loss, compared to 5 percent for the least affected decile. The worst affected workers also suffer much larger long-run losses, have a higher baseline risk of displacement, lower pre-displacement earnings, and much worse (counterfactual) non-displaced earnings prospects. These results jointly imply that job loss leads to accelerated gross-earnings inequality by affecting the most vulnerable workers the most. The impact on disposable income is much less unequal because of a progressive tax/transfer system which mitigates the passthrough. A broad set of characteristics correlate with the degree of earnings losses; high age, low schooling, routine job content, working in manufacturing and living in a rural area are key predictors. Other obvious suspects such as minority status, gender and family status are less relevant. Policy-makers are most likely to find vulnerable workers if they target old workers in manufacturing.
Oskar Nordström Skans is a Professor of Economics at Uppsala University. His research topics cover most aspects of the labor market, both from a micro and macro perspective.
More about the Speaker
The seminar takes place at Stockholm School of Economics, Sveavägen 65, room 750.
Please contact email@example.com if you have any questions.