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Online search queries as a proxy for contagion
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2020-04-27
In the current coronavirus outbreak, governments face hard decisions on how to best combat the spread of the virus. This note proposes a way to capture the spread of contagion, so as to quickly...
Optimal testing
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2020-04-29
A new working paper by Jakob Jonnerby (Oxford) and co-authors analyzes how to optimally prioritize testing resources under scarcity.
A primer on the SIR model
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2020-04-30
Mathematical models are used to approximate epidemic outbreaks and try to predict their outcomes. In this popular Youtube lecture, Tom Britton, Professor in Mathematical Statistics and Dean of...
Social distancing before government intervention
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2020-05-04
Micro-data on mobility in the US show that individuals substantially reduced their exposure to others long before the introduction of restrictions on movement in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Optimizing behavior alters predictions of epidemiological models
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2020-05-15
There is a surge of papers in economics that integrate economic models with the canonical epidemiological SIR model. Two recent papers show that incorporating individual decision-making alters key...
IMF’s growth forecasts for non-advanced economies
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2020-05-25
The IMF’s assessment is that growth will decline by 8.4 percentage points for the advanced economies from 2019 to 2020 and by only 5.3 percentage points for emerging markets and developing economies....
Individual welfare costs of stay-at-home orders
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2020-05-28
In a new paper, SSE-CERN network members Erik Wengström and Ola Andersson with co-authors estimate that a one-month stay-at-home order would give a welfare loss of around 9 percent of Sweden's monthly...
Socio-economic assessment of infection control measures
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2020-05-30
A new report written by an expert group chaired by Steinar Holden and commissioned by the Norwegian Directorate of Health assesses the socio-economic effects of infection control and prevention...
Forecasting the local progression of the Covid-19 epidemic
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2020-05-30
Combining ideas from several fields of mathematics - tropical geometry, Perron-Frobenius theory, probability and optimisation, transport PDE in population dynamics - a new study provides an algorithm...
The Riksbank's new real-time indicators
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2020-06-12
To gain a rapid estimate of how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting the Swedish economy and labour market, the Riksbank has expanded its collection and compilation of high-frequency data, known as...