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Brown Bag Seminar | Endogenous Technological Change Along the Demographic Transition with Markus Pettersson

Welcome to the Brown Bag Seminar in Economics organized by the Department of Economics, SSE. The seminar speaker is Markus Pettersson, SSE, presenting "Endogenous technological change along the demographic transition".

Markus Pettersson is a fourth-year PhD candidate at SSE. Markus' research interests include macroeconomics, demographic economics and economic growth.

Markus will present "Endogenous Technological Change Along the Demographic Transition".

Abstract

This project investigates the consequences of demographic change on economic growth when technological change is endogenously driven by R&D. Qualitatively, population ageing generates two opposing transitional forces: increased R&D and capital investments on the one hand, and an increasing old-age dependency ratio on the other. I evaluate these channels quantitatively along the demographic transition using a calibrated overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic, uninsurable productivity shocks, mortality risk, intensive and extensive margins of labour supply and endogenous technological change. Considering the United States, I find that demographic change improved growth throughout the latter half of the twentieth century. Consistent with the empirical observation of recently declining growth rates, ageing also accounts for a 0.5 percentage point drop in growth since 2000 and is predicted to keep growth rates low throughout the twenty-first century. Decomposing the growth rate reveals that technological change is an important driver of these results, accounting for 50 percent of cumulative growth between 1950 and 2100.

This seminar is online via Zoom.

Please contact kristen.pendleton@hhs.se if you would like to attend the webinar or have other questions.

Dept. of Economics Economics Lunch seminar Brown bag