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Predicted fatality rates for Covid-19 around the world

Early reports suggest the fatality rate from COVID-19 varies greatly across countries, but non-random testing and incomplete vital registration systems render it impossible to directly estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) in many low- and middle-income countries. A new study tries to fill this gap.

Selene Ghisolfi, Ingvild AlmÃ¥s, Justin Sandefur, Tillmann von Carnap, Jesse Heitner, and Tessa Bold, researchers at IIES, CGDev, Aceso Global and Bocconi University, propose a method to extrapolate available estimates from hardest-hit western countries to new contexts with limited data infrastructure. They adjust the estimates first for the distribution of sex, age, and relevant comorbidities for 187 countries from the Global Burden of Disease( GBD) dataset, and subsequently also for health system capacity, by incorporating regional differences in the relative odds of infection fatality from childhood influenza. The adjusted regional estimates of the predicted COVID-19 IFR range from 0.43% in Western Sub- Saharan Africa to 1.83% for Eastern Europe.

Link to the paper here.

Posted by Maria Perrotta Berlin,


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