Elections remain a central feature of many authoritarian regimes despite widespread manipulation and limited political competition. Using a survey experiment with a nationally representative sample of Russian voters, this study examines whether improving perceptions of legitimacy can help explain why autocrats hold elections. The results show that information about high turnout increases trust in government, while information about low turnout reduces it, with effects driven by government supporters and individuals who believe in election integrity. This suggests that authoritarian leaders may use elections and reported electoral outcomes strategically to reinforce legitimacy among their support base and manage public perceptions over time.

Key points from the FREE Network policy brief

• Turnout information changes trust: In the experiment, telling people turnout was high (66%) increased reported trust in government, while telling them turnout was low (38%) decreased trust -compared with a group that got no election-result information.
• Effects are concentrated among regime supporters: Changes in trust were driven mainly by people who already supported the ruling party (United Russia); opposition supporters’ trust barely moved no matter what information they received.
• Belief in election integrity matters: People who thought vote-counting violations happen frequently did not significantly change their trust when shown turnout numbers, suggesting official “results” persuade mainly those who already see elections as at least somewhat credible.

Meet the author

Anastasiia Arbuzova, Postdoctoral Researcher, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE), Stockholm School of Economics
Email: anastasiia.arbuzova@hhs.se