With 73% of Sweden's economy influenced by international shocks, policymakers and businesses require strategic adaptability – especially in light of the recent interest rate hikes by central banks around the world. In a study conducted for the Sveriges Riksbank, researcher Lina Thomas sheds light on Sweden's deep economic interdependencies on global events.

On December 6, 2022, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) hosted the annual Development Day, this year focusing on how to maintain and organize support for Ukraine. See photos and highlights from the conference to learn more.

This year’s SITE Development Day conference will focus on the Russian war on Ukraine. We will discuss the situation in Ukraine and neighbouring countries, how to finance and organize financial support within the EU and within Sweden, and how to deal with the current energy crisis.

Russia’s fierce military campaign in Ukraine continues, but Ukraine stands their ground as the military tide is turning in their favour. But what besides the military support is needed for Ukraine to win the war?

Is the Russian economy “surprisingly resilient” to sanctions and actions of the West? The short answer is no. In this policy brief, Maria Perrotta Berlin and Jesper Roine, researchers from Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE), discusses the bleak economic future of Russia.

With sanctions becoming an increasingly important tool in ostracising autocratic regimes from western markets, the need for effective enforcement of Anti-Money Laundering (AML) policies is increasing. The global AML regime will be the backbone in detecting evasion of sanctions. This regime has, however, been widely criticised as ineffective. In this brief, Giancarlo Spagnolo and Theo Nyreröd discusses issues with the current AML regime and propose a reward scheme for whistleblowers to enable asset seizures. A powerful feature of their proposal is that it does not rely on the effectiveness of the AML regime.

Ukraine is currently receiving substantial inflows of foreign aid from western donors to help the country withstand the Russian aggression. The foreign aid flows partly reflect altruistic motives from the donor side, but also donor’s domestic strategic foreign policy objectives as the war is seen as part of a battle over the future world order. In this brief, Anders Olofsgård, discuss the academic literature that has analysed the existence and consequences of strategic motivations behind aid flows more generally, and draw some preliminary insights for the case of Ukraine.

Sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine are argued to be the strongest and farthest-reaching imposed on a major power after WWII, more numerous and more comprehensive than all other measures currently in force against all other sanctioned countries. A question often asked, which is hard to answer, is whether sanctions are effective.

This brief provides an overview of the discussion on the relative merits of grants and loans in the literature on foreign aid, including a short section on debt relief initiatives. These claims are then tested against the context of Ukrainian post-war reconstruction, and it is argued that the case for providing grants is very strong. This argument is based on the magnitude of the investments needed, the need to create a long-run sustainable economy, the road towards a future EU membership, and the global value of a democratic and prosperous Ukraine as a bulwark against autocratic forces.

Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, the West has been contemplating sanctions on Russian oil and gas imports. For the EU, this plan poses a significant challenge due to the long-existing sizable dependency on Russian energy. In this brief, we outline the possible effects of banning Russian oil and gas on the energy import bill across the EU.