When Markets Stop Pricing Risk Correctly

A closed door event featuring a live recording of Central Questions, a new podcast series hosted by former Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves—an intimate, high-level conversation series on the forces shaping modern finance and the global economy.

This episode features Harvard economist Andrei Shleifer, one of the most cited researchers in economics, whose work on behavioral finance, credit cycles, and market fragility changed how investors, economists, and policymakers think about risk. 

What we'll discuss: 

• Why financial systems become most fragile precisely when they appear most stable 

• How optimism, leverage, and credit expansion quietly build risk beneath calm markets 

• Why those vulnerabilities are almost always hardest to see in real time 

• Insights from Shleifer's recent work on Predictable Financial Crises and Real Credit Cycles 

Why now? Spreads are tight. Investors are debating whether markets are underpricing risk again. With tariff shocks rattling global trade, central banks navigating a post-rate-hike hangover, and credit still flowing freely, the question Shleifer has spent his career asking feels urgent: are we building the next crisis while congratulating ourselves on stability?