PhD Seminar with Ausra Speer

Title: Who Leaves, Who Stays, and Who Recovers? Workforce Dynamics and Firm Outcomes During an Economic Crisis

Abstract: This paper examines how workforce dynamics during a crisis shape firm performance and recovery. I study two dimensions: (i) the impact of gendered separations during the Covid-19 shock on firm and worker outcomes, and (ii) the mediating role of female leadership and human-resource (HR) policy orientation. Using Portuguese matched employer–employee data (2010–2023) combined with HR-policy surveys (IPG 2016/2022; IREE 2020), I construct Human Resources Policy Indices (HRPI and HRPI-C) and find that the pandemic disproportionately displaced employees in female-dominated firms, and that workforce losses—especially among longer-tenured employees—were associated with weaker firm performance and higher risks of long-term unemployment. As a mediating factor, female managerial representation is positively associated with worker retention and more employee-oriented HR practices; in turn, these practices are linked to stronger post-crisis recovery in firm financial performance. Overall, the evidence suggests that organizational resilience to systemic shocks depends in part on gender-diverse leadership and the alignment of HR policies with employee needs.