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Effect of Covid-19 on global productivity

21 July 2020

The World Bank has published a new book on “Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies”, edited by Alistair Dieppe, with a database covering 164 countries over 1980-2018. The book analyses the long-run trend in global productivity but covers also the potential effects of Covid-19.

Predicted fatality rates for Covid-19 around the world

18 June 2020

Early reports suggest the fatality rate from COVID-19 varies greatly across countries, but non-random testing and incomplete vital registration systems render it impossible to directly estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) in many low- and middle-income countries. A new study tries to fill this gap.

IMF’s growth forecasts for non-advanced economies

25 May 2020

The IMF’s assessment is that growth will decline by 8.4 percentage points for the advanced economies from 2019 to 2020 and by only 5.3 percentage points for emerging markets and developing economies. What drives the optimistic forecasts made by the IMF for non-advanced economies?

Flawed risk assessment and policy decisions

10 May 2020

Humans are bad at assessing risk even in the best of times. During a pandemic – when the disease is unfamiliar, people are isolated and stressed, and the death toll is rising – our risk perception becomes even more distorted. This is a recipe for disastrous policy mistakes.

Policy guidance for developing countries

30 April 2020

Developing countries face substantially different trade-offs and even more uncertainty compared to rich countries when dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic. The International Growth Centre (IGC) released a policy guidance note that clearly spells out what the main issues are.