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Do lockdowns work? A counterfactual for Sweden

13 May 2020
A paper by Benjamin Born, Alexander M. Dietrich and Gernot J. Müller study the case of Sweden – one of the few countries without a lockdown – and use synthetic control techniques to develop a counterfactual lockdown scenario. They find that a lockdown would not have helped much in Sweden.

Counterproductive Incentives in the Business Compensation Scheme

11 May 2020
The Norwegian government has designed a business compensation scheme to help firms avoid bankruptcies and keep operating during the corona crisis.

Flawed risk assessment and policy decisions

10 May 2020
Humans are bad at assessing risk even in the best of times. During a pandemic – when the disease is unfamiliar, people are isolated and stressed, and the death toll is rising – our risk perception becomes even more distorted. This is a recipe for disastrous policy mistakes.

Covid-19 and early retirement

10 May 2020
A new working paper by Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber use a repeated large-scale survey of (representative) households in the Nielsen Homescan panel to characterize how labor markets are being affected by the covid-19 pandemic. There is some evidence of an effect on early retirement choices.

How much and when should we limit economic activity to ensure the health-care system is not overwhelmed?

06 May 2020
In a recent working paper entitled "Optimal epidemic suppression under an ICU constraint", network members Laurent Miclo, Daniel Spiro and Jörgen Weibull analyze this question and show that "flattening the curve" is not theoretically optimal, instead one should "fill the box".

Paying for the pandemic

06 May 2020
TSE economists weigh in on the role of the ECB and financial markets for the financing of the Covid debt in Europe.

Optimally Targeted Lockdown

06 May 2020
A new working paper by Daron Acemoglu, Victor Chernozhukov, Iván Werning and Michael Whinston study optimal lockdown policy in the framework of a standard SIR epidemic model with multiple risk groups (MR-SIR).

Under- and post-lockdown in emerging nations

04 May 2020
The tradeoffs between contagion management and economic activity is sharper in poor countries and emerging markets. "We cannot have the poor, the labourers and the migrants bear the brunt of the effort to contain the spread of the virus, nor do we want to weaken the foundations of the economy so much that we emerge from the pandemic onto an economic wasteland."

Social distancing before government intervention

04 May 2020
Micro-data on mobility in the US show that individuals substantially reduced their exposure to others long before the introduction of restrictions on movement in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

How has COVID-19 affected the mobility of Swedes?

02 May 2020
A paper by Matz Dahlberg (IBF, UU, IFAU) and a group of Uppsala-based researchers suggests that changes in mobility patterns are similar across geographic areas with different socioeconomic and demographic characteristics.

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