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India's troubles

07 September 2020
India's recorded coronavirus case total has surpassed that of Brazil, making India the second worst-affected country in the world after the United States. Prominent Indian economists worry about the management of the country's lockdown, explain the puzzle of its case fatality rate, and identify ways forward for the recovery of its economy.

On the Management of Population Immunity

06 September 2020
A new working paper by network member Flavio Toxvaerd, together with Robert Rowthorn considers a SIR model of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19 or swine flu, in which costly treatment or vaccination confers immunity on recovered individuals. Once immune, individuals indirectly protect the remaining susceptibles, who benefit from a measure of herd immunity. Treatment and vaccination are shown to have radically different effects and desirability at different stages of the epidemic.

How Much Does COVID-19 Increase with Mobility?

06 August 2020
How effective are restrictions on geographic mobility in limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic?

Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19

05 August 2020
The overall Covid19 Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for a given location is intrinsically linked to the age-specific pattern of infections.

Effect of Covid-19 on global productivity

21 July 2020
The World Bank has published a new book on “Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies”, edited by Alistair Dieppe, with a database covering 164 countries over 1980-2018. The book analyses the long-run trend in global productivity but covers also the potential effects of Covid-19.

The macroeconomics of age-varying epidemics

21 July 2020
A new working paper from Marta Giagheddu and Andrea Papetti illustrates the pros and cons of different combinations of economic shutdown and targeted social distancing with a special focus on the dimension of intergenerational contacts.

Influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2

01 July 2020
MIT economist Glenn Ellison surveys the epidemiological literature on an SIR extension incorporating heterogeneity in the activity rates of different subpopulations, and notes ways in which analyses based on classic SIR models can potentially yield misleading views. In a similar spirit, a new study by mathematics professor Tom Britton shows that population heterogeneity can significantly impact disease-induced immunity.

Optimal dynamic confinement under uncertainty and learning

01 July 2020
In a new paper, network member Christian Gollier analyzes the uncertainty surrounding how contagious a virus is and how that affects optimal suppression.

Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2

22 June 2020
Network member Flavio Toxvaerd with coauthors consider, in a new working paper, the optimal social distancing policy in an SEIRS model of the COVID-19 epidemic in which immunity wanes over time.

Nowcasting COVID-19 statistics

22 June 2020
Statistics are often registered with delay and Swedish COVID-19 deaths are reported with up to 14 days of lag. Death statistics therefore always appear to be on a positive trend. In a new paper, SSE-CERN member Adam Altmejd together with Joacim Rocklöv, and Jonas Wallin propose a statistical method to estimate the actual number of deaths.
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