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The risk for a new COVID-19 wave

Network member prof. Tom Britton, together with colleagues Pieter Trapman and Frank Ball, investigate in a new study the risk for a new epidemic wave and its doubling time, and how they depend on R0, current immunity level and the overall effect of the current preventive measures.

The study is built on a mathematical model including heterogeneities owing to age, social activity and susceptibility, and allowing for time-varying preventive measures. Results show that the current immunity level plays a more influential role than when immunity is obtained from vaccination; moreover, it is shown that regions with lower R0 and low immunity may now need higher preventive measures compared with other regions having higher R0 but also higher immunity, even when such immunity levels are far from herd immunity.

Read the whole study here.