India's recorded coronavirus case total has surpassed that of Brazil, making India the second worst-affected country in the world after the United States. Prominent Indian economists worry about the management of the country's lockdown, explain the puzzle of its case fatality rate, and identify ways forward for the recovery of its economy.

A new working paper by network member Flavio Toxvaerd, together with Robert Rowthorn considers a SIR model of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19 or swine flu, in which costly treatment or vaccination confers immunity on recovered individuals. Once immune, individuals indirectly protect the remaining susceptibles, who benefit from a measure of herd immunity. Treatment and vaccination are shown to have radically different effects and desirability at different stages of the epidemic.

How effective are restrictions on geographic mobility in limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic?

The overall Covid19 Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for a given location is intrinsically linked to the age-specific pattern of infections.

The World Bank has published a new book on “Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies”, edited by Alistair Dieppe, with a database covering 164 countries over 1980-2018. The book analyses the long-run trend in global productivity but covers also the potential effects of Covid-19.

A new working paper from Marta Giagheddu and Andrea Papetti illustrates the pros and cons of different combinations of economic shutdown and targeted social distancing with a special focus on the dimension of intergenerational contacts.

MIT economist Glenn Ellison surveys the epidemiological literature on an SIR extension incorporating heterogeneity in the activity rates of different subpopulations, and notes ways in which analyses based on classic SIR models can potentially yield misleading views. In a similar spirit, a new study by mathematics professor Tom Britton shows that population heterogeneity can significantly impact disease-induced immunity.

In a new paper, network member Christian Gollier analyzes the uncertainty surrounding how contagious a virus is and how that affects optimal suppression.

Network member Flavio Toxvaerd with coauthors consider, in a new working paper, the optimal social distancing policy in an SEIRS model of the COVID-19 epidemic in which immunity wanes over time.